BCS Buckeye Championship Series

Double Standards R' Us

2008-09-28T11:56:00.006-04:00

Welcome Dawgs, watch out for the Gators, try to sniff out the Trojans hiding in here somewhere. Come on in and join we Buckeyes, in front of the fireplace ablaze with our dreams, hopes, fervant beliefs that we belong at the top of the college football universe. Warm your scarred souls with the heat of flaming derision from every chat room. We can all enjoy some humble pie and listen to tales told over and over of how overrated we all are. No team, perhaps in history, has been as scorned for losing four games in three seasons as Ohio State. Now you join us here in the heartbreak hotel, in the land of the overrated. Don't worry, we'll have more company soon. My question is will your serving of humble pie be as big as the Buckeyes?

A recent history

Buckeyes

2006, 12-1, defeated two #2 ranked teams (Texas and Michigan) lost to #2 Florida 41-14 in NC game.
-Consensus of opinion: Mediocre team in a bad confernce got outclassed by speedy SEC opponent.

2007, 11-2, lost to resurgent Illinois with an officiating crew that was fired after the season in no small part because of the miserable job they did in this and other games. Picked to finish 3rd in the Big Ten, they won it outright and watched seven teams in front of them lose in the final few weeks of the season. The blood bath that was the 2007 season allowed them to slip into the NC game vs. a powerful and experienced LSU. The score did not reflect the suicidal personal foul's which allowed LSU to extend their slight lead into a blowout by the third quarter, or the fact that OSU out-gained LSU by more than 2 yards per play and ended up losing by 14 with a team that had to replace 75% of its offensive production from the year before.
-Consensus of opinion: Confirmation that the SEC is far superior to the best the Big Ten has to offer past, present and future.

2008, #3rd ranked and Beanie-less Buckeye's lose big to #1 USC who took every opportunity to humiliate the most hated team in the history of college football.
-Consensus of opinion: Need we say more? The buckeye's are totally exposed, jokes of a team, in the worst conference in college football.

USC

2006, lost to unranked Oregon State early and UCLA in the final game of the regular season while ranked #3.
-Consensus of opinion: What? who? Don't look at us! Look at all the other upsets, at least we weren't humiliated in the national championship game.

2007, lost to Stanford (4-8) in the biggest upset of the season (not withstanding the Michigan loss to eventual 1-AA National Champion Appalachin State), and then to a Dennis Dixon led Oregon.
-Consensus of opinion: Stanford?!! Freaking Stanford?!! Oh wait look over there, it's Ohio State losing another National Championship game!

2008, the greatest team in the history of college football, who could beat half of the NFL, schools the most overrated team in the history of college football 35-3, then loses to unranked Oregon state, after a bye week, again.
-Consensus of opinion: Look there's Will Ferrell and Denzel Washington! Did we mention we beat Ohio State?

Florida

2006, lost to #10 Auburn away, whipped Heisman winner Troy Smith led Ohio State who were being touted as one of the greatest teams ever 41-14 with a frenzied spread-option attack led by next years Heisman winner Tim Tebow.
-Consensus of opinion: SEC speed + slow Big Ten = blowout.

2007, rebuilding team loses to #3 Auburn, #2 LSU, #19 Georgia, and Michigan in the citrus bowl.
-Consensus of opinion- Well gee I mean they lost most of their team from last year so what do you expect?

2008, #4 ranked Gators lose a shocker to unranked Ole Miss at home!
-consensus of opinion: Well golly, the SEC is soooo tough, how do you expect us to beat our own conference bottom feeders?

Georgia

2006, #9 Georgia blown out 51-33 by #14 Tennessee then lost to unranked Vanderbilt, #8 Florida and unranked Kentucky.
-Consensus of opinion. Disappointing season under King of coaches in waiting Mark Richt, who sniff, sniff, must slog through the SEC every year.

2007, pre-season #13 lost to #12 South Carolina and unranked Tennessee (again).
-Consensus of opinion: They finished strong against four ranked teams and set the stage for a national title run the following season.

2008, pre-season #1 gets manhandled by St. Nick Saban led Alabama 41-30 (not as close as the final score).
-Consensus of opinion: Wow look at how great Alabama is, I mean it's Nick Saban, national title winning St. Nick. Woe is us, we're forced to play SEC teams, boo hoo.

My opinion? The humiliation vs. Florida has irrationally soured the nation's opinion of Ohio State and the Big Ten. When other top teams lose games they shouldn't, to far worse teams than the three of the four OSU lost to, they get excused. When Ohio State loses to the #2 ranked team and two #1 ranked teams in three different seasons and two National title games they get excoriated from sea to shining sea.

Sigh, another year of SEC vs Big 10 debates

2008-08-17T14:53:00.003-04:00

I suppose we have the internet to blame, every knuckle dragger with a pulse and some bandwidth can chime in with his or her enlightened opinion on any topic imaginable. Emotionally charged topics always bring out the crazies. I have a theory why this is particularly bad when it comes to college football; it's regional and semi-tribal, therefore it's tied to our self identification on some deep pre-rational level. That's why facts rarely get in the way of a good argument. The general tone on most forums is "you're either one of us or you're a trogldyte who wouldn't know good football if your were pancaked by it."

With the recent success of the SEC in the National Championship game and the Big 10's struggles the debate is at a fever pitch. Of course the supposed dominance of the SEC is more perception than fact, but would you expect anything different from a sport that picks the top two teams that play for the National Championship by a popularity contest?

Here are some facts I gleaned from the College Football Data Warehouse, the best college football data base I've come across.

Big Ten vs SEC 95-89-7 (51%)-Advantage: Big 10

D-1 All time wins of Big 10 and SEC teams:

Rank-Team-win pct.

1. Michigan 74%
5. Ohio State 71%
6. Penn St. 68%
7. Alabama 70%
9. Tennessee 69%
11. Georgia 64%
12. LSU 64%
13. Auburn 63%
23. Arkansas 59%
26. Florida 62%
27. Minnesota .57%
32. Mich St. 58%
34. Miss. 56%
35. Wisc. 565%
40. Purdue 54%
41. Iowa 52%
42 Illinois 52%
44. Kentucky 50%
48 Vanderbilt 50%
60. S. Car 49%
72. Miss St. 48%
86. Northwestern 43%
95. Indiana 42%

Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State top the list, six SEC teams follow, six of the next 7 are in the Big Ten, and the bottom 2 of the last 7 are in the Big Ten.

81% of the Big Ten is above .500 in all time wins and in the top 50 all time winning programs.
83% of the SEC is above .500 and in the top 50 all time.

2 Big Ten and 2 SEC teams are below .500

Advantage: Even

NFL Draft picks since 2003

Big Ten-210 (19/team avg.) SEC-225 (18.75/team avg.) advantage: Even

Head to Head matchups

Mich vs SEC 20-5
Ind vs SEC 26-21
Minn vs SEC 5-3
Iowa vs SEC 4-3
PSU vs SEC 16-16
Mich St. vs SEC 5-6
Pur vs SEC 4-5
OSU vs SEC 7-11
Wisc vs SEC 4-8
NW vs SEC 2-5
Ill vs SEC 2-6

Big 10 vs:

Alabama 9-13-0
Arkansas 5-1-0
Auburn 3-6-2
Florida 5-9-0
Georgia 2-7-0
Kentucky 31-24-1
LSU 4-7-1
Miss 3-0-0
Miss St. 6-2-1
S. Car 5-3-0
Tenn 5-10-0
Vanderbilt 17-7-2

SEC vs:

Illinois 6-2-0
Indiana 21-26-1
Iowa 3-4-0
Michigan 5-20-1
Mich St. 6-5-1
Minnesota 3-5-0
Northwestern 5-2-1
Ohio State 11-7-2
Penn St. 16-16-0
Purdue 5-4-0
Wisconsin 8-4-1

advantage: SEC

When you look at the head to head matchups, the SEC's top teams are consistently better against the big 10 than the top Big 10 teams are against the SEC thanks mostly to Ohio State's 7-11 record overall and abysmal 0-9 record in bowl games, but the bottom feeders in the Big 10 do better against the SEC than the SEC's bottom feeders do against the Big 10. I also looked at a lot of North vs. South and west vs. south records and there is no clear superiority there either. For instance Notre Dame is 21-13 vs the SEC, Pittsburgh is 8-1-2, Missouri is 19-8-1, West Va is 21-17-2, North Carolina is 84-74-8, Oklahoma is 19-9-1, and USC is 21-17-2. I'm sure equally lopsided records supporting the SEC superiority argument could be found but my point is not that the SEC sucks, it is that the SEC's current success does not erase the evenness of the SEC vs Big 10 rivalry overall. The case can be made for SEC superiority only by ignoring important stats that do not support that argument. But as I said why let that get in the way of a good argument.

The Terrelle Pryor Phenomenon

2008-03-19T19:23:00.005-04:00

We got em! The number one rated high school football player in the country. But of course a bunch of happy people means a bunch of mad people. Michigan and Penn State fans slagging the kid for jilting their school, buckeye's who think he's a prima-donna. God almighty people leave the kid alone! He's an 18 year old who happens to be a gifted athlete, he's not the Dalai Lama or Mother Teresa. Why do we declare him a failure if he doesn't fulfill OUR expectations? Why do the trogldytes lurking around the ESPN forums feel they are the best arbiters of this kids character and possibilities?

Is he guaranteed to be OSU's next Chic Harley, Archie Griffen or Troy Smith? Of course not. But landing five star recruits in bunches sure does increase your chances of getting the next all everything super hero who will forever be associated with your school. And Jim Tressel is a master at landing these outstanding athletes in bunches. Maybe our next superstar won't be the five star, #1 overall high school recruit, phenomenon that Pryor is, maybe like A.J. Hawk and Troy Smith he'll be a three star after thought. But I'm putting my money on Pryor to be a monster in college. And with the rock solid foundation the Buckeye's already have and the class coming in with him he has the potential to be our second Heisman trophy winner in a decade. I am excited about the possibility without the expectation that it WILL happen.

Joel Penton: Righteous Dude

2008-03-16T04:19:00.003-04:00

Joel Penton spoke at my son's upward basketball banquet tonight. And I must say, I liked the guy a lot. He had a positive message that could be taken to heart by anyone of any faith, philosophy, or belief system. Not to mention he had a great highlight reel topped off by his sack of Chad Henne in 2006. My son had his upward basketball autographed, and I got a pretty good look at his 2002 National Championship ring. Cooool. He's also, ironically, the 2006 Danny Wuerffel trophy winner. Which I had forgotten (blocked from my mind) after OSU got its ass handed to them by Wuerffel's Gator's in 2006. A second national championship ring would have looked even better but twas not to be.

Shame, Shame, Shame

2008-01-17T19:39:00.000-05:00

Shame on you Ohio State, how dare you go 23-3 over the past two seasons, win the Heisman, Butkus, and a O-lineman's back pocket full of other awards, then embarass yourself in two straight national title games. How dare you finish the regular season as one of the top two ranked teams in the country three out of the last six years. How dare you beat two number two teams in one season one of which was your archrival. How dare you beat that rival four straight years. You know the SEC is the best conference in the history of the world and you should have had the decency to bow out the national title game so that Georgia could have played LSU this year for a true National Championship. Or at least the pollsters could have let USC get pummeled by LSU. Anything but Ohio State again. Now I see your media moles have you ranked in the top five for the 2008 season, with virtually the same team that the SEC dominated for a second straight year. Everyone knows we should just pick the top five SEC teams first then maybe let USC, Ohio State, Michigan or some other second rate team slip in under them. I mean just look how dominant the SEC is.

Final Stats

The Big Ten's weakness

2007-12-05T18:27:00.000-05:00

Just how weak is the Big Ten?

TEAM-Pts/G--TotYds--Yds/G-3rdD%-4th%-Pen-PenYds-TD-Plays
NU ---25.8---- 5132----427.7----.458----.389----59----563----37----927
MSU ---34.1---- 5115----426.3----.416----.625----64----614----48----898
ILL ---28.8---- 5080----423.3----.443----.857----58----570----41----845
PUR ---32.9---- 5080---423.3---.401----.588----71----584----46----926
WISC ---30.5---- 4967---413.9----.449----.600----71----561----44----868
MINN ---26.3---- 4890---407.5----.426----.435----67----502----40----887
PSU ---30.8---- 4788---399.0----.466----.667----56----431----43----871
OSU ---32.0---- 4765---397.1----.476----.636----65----491----44----827
IU ---31.6---- 4720---393.3----.421----.600----65----629----42----844
MICH---26.1---- 4482---373.5----.416----.357----58-----515----40----877
IOWA---18.5---- 3796---316.3----.316----.500----67----667----28----814

We have four teams with more than 5000 yds total offense, Six that average more than 400 yds/game and 30+pts. They're 33-8 in their non-conference games. In the BCS we have #1 Ohio State at 11-1, #13 Illinois and #18 Wisconsin at 9-3, Michigan and Penn State are 8-4, Indiana, Michigan State and Purdue are 7-5, Iowa and N. Western are 6-6 and Minnesota is 1-11. The difference this year seems to be that the traditional pecking order is a little upside down. With the rise of Illinois and Indiana and the fall of Michigan vs non conference teams and Iowa and Minnesota from perennial bowl teams. The perception throughout the country is that the Big Ten is terrible this year but the numbers just don't bear that out. Down a little sure, but not awful. It's just not the season anybody expected much like the rest of the college football season.

Hey LSU, wanna race?

2007-12-04T17:56:00.000-05:00

All the pundits and message board geeks are convinced. OSU can't handle LSU's "SEC speed". Oh really? Here's a rundown of the starting lineup's 40 yard dash times.

OFFENSE

---OSU--- ---LSU---

RB - C. Wells 4.5 RB - Williams 4.4
WR - Robiskie 4.52 WR - Doucet 4.4
WR - Hartline 4.57 WR - Lefell 4.5
FB - Johnson 4.5 FB/RB - Hester 4.6
QB - Boeckman 4.9 QB - Flynn 4.53
TE - Nicol 4.75 TE - Dickson 4.79
OT - Boone 5.1 OT - Black 5.3
OT - Barton 4.9 OT - Stewart 4.75
OG - Rehring 5.4 OG - Johnson 5.3
OG - Person 5.1 OG - Hitt 4.96
C - Cordle 5.1 C - Heims 5.2

OSU total players faster: 4 LSU total players faster: total 7

DEFENSE

---OSU--- ---LSU---

SS - Coleman 4.41 S - Stehz 4.5
FS - Russell 4.59 S - Taylor 4.6
CB - Jenkins 4.43 CB - Zenon 4.5
CB - Washington 4.5 CB - Jackson 4.5
SAM - Grant 4.4 SAM - Beckwith 4.53
MLB - Laurinaitis 4.7 MLB - Highsmith 4.5
WLB - Freeman 4.6 WLB - Sanders 4.6
DE - Gholston 4.5 DE - Jackson 4.8
DE - Heyward 5.17 DE - Alem ?
DT - Denlinger 4.85 DT - Dorsey 5.0
DT - Worthington 4.75 DT - Favorite 4.8

OSU total players faster: 7 LSU total players faster: 1 ties 3

Hmm... where's all that defensive speed the Buckeye's are supposed to be so afraid of? The fact is if this were a track meet, Ohio State would win! But of course it's not a track meet. So what can we gather from these and other vital statistics of the two teams? Chris Wells is bigger and faster than every LB and safety on LSU's defense. Darren McFadden anyone? Robiskie and Hartline are 2-3 inches taller than all but two of LSU's CB's, LB's and safeties. Boeckman is taller than 10 LSU defenders and outweighs 7 of them! Gholston is .2-.8 faster than every LSU offensive linemen and he bench presses nearly 500 pounds. Jenkins is same height and .03 seconds slower in the 40 than Early Doucet. Larry Grant a linebacker is 6-3, 226 lbs. and runs the 40 as fast as Doucet!

The Crystal Hot Potato

2007-12-01T23:11:00.000-05:00

O H I O! Going to New Orleans for our second straight national title game. Let's hope they show up for this one. But who will be number two? Who wants it? USC? No. LSU? No. OSU? No. LSU again? NO, NO! Kansas? No thanks, West Virginia? Nah. Oh Ohio State again. Why thank you yes we'll take a shot at holding on to that hot potato. We're back in (which is not to say we backed in). What a crazy season. What if we had an eight team playoff with Ohio State, USC, Oklahoma, LSU, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia and Kansas? Nah not enough money to be made for the big monied interests right? Who wants to see if Ohio state can beat any three of these schools anyway? Instead lets let the pollsters make the match ups by completely ignoring last weeks polls and act as if they meant nothing at all (because they really don't). Let's let a poplarity contest decide who the pollsters want to see play for the national title and act as if that's what they meant all along.

A farce! A charade! A debacle! Ban the BCS! The Polls are the problem! Let's decide it on the field not on the legal pads of beat writers or in the last five minutes of coaches meetings or in the hard drives of football geeks.

Who should it be?

2007-11-28T17:40:00.000-05:00

Everybody's got an opinion about who should be playing for the national title. Apparently in general fans want to see anybody but who will play for it. Missouri, Kansas and Ohio State apparently don't belong because of their weak non-conference schedule and a lack of quality wins in general.

Missouri played 9-3 Illinois, 3-9 Ole Miss, 5-7 W. Mich., 4-7 Illinois St., and lost to 10-2 Oklahoma. West Virginia played 5-7 W. Mich., 3-9 Marshall, 6-6 Maryland, 7-5 E. Carolina, 7-5 Miss. St., and lost to 9-3 S. Florida. Ohio State played 7-4 Youngstown st., 4-8 Akron, 4-8 Washington, and 3-9 Kent St.

So who should it be then? # 4 Georgia who is 10-2? They played 6-6 Oklahoma state, 1-10 Western Carolina, and 8-3 Troy. They lost to 6-6 S. Carolina and 9-3 Tennessee. Wow what a power house schedule!

How about #5 Kansas who is 11-1? 7-5 Central Michigan, 3-8 S.E. Louisiana, 5-7 Toledo, and 0-11 Florida International, and who lost to 11-1 Missouri. Again I don't think they are what the critics are looking for either.

Ok, next is # 6 Virginia Tech at 10-2. They played 7-5 Eastern Carolina, 6-6 Ohio, 4-7 William and Mary, and lost to 10-2 LSU and 10-2 Boston College. Not exactly jumping up and down over that schedule either.

So we move down to # 7 LSU and # 8 USC. Now we're getting somewhere. This is the kind of match up that people are talking about. LSU of course was ranked #1 twice this season before overtime losses to 7-5 Kentucky and 8-4 Arkansas. USC also held down the #1 ranking at some point this season before losing to 8-3 Oregon and a Stunner to 3-8 Stanford. What did their non-conference schedules look like?

LSU played 10-2 Va Tech, 5-7 Middle Tenn. St., 4-8 Tulane, and 5-6 La. Tech. Woo Wee, what a schedule!

USC played 1-11 Idaho, 5-7 Nebraska, and 3-9 Notre Dame. Yowsah. Pete Carroll had the nerve to ding Jim Tressel for scheduling patsies!

Not a single team in the top 8 of the BCS has played more than one quality non-conference opponent. And only LSU beat that quality team in Virginia Tech. Of these 8 teams only Kansas has one loss and they are not even the Big 12 champion. So you tell me who deserves it more than one loss Missouri (if they beat Oklahoma), one loss West Virginia (if they beat Pitt) or one loss Ohio State. The fact is the BCS because it's based on polls is like a game of reverse musical chairs. If you lose you're out, if you slip back in and lose again, you're really out. Get over it or boycott college football until there is a bowl championship playoff.

B owel C leansing S eries

2007-11-25T19:15:00.000-05:00

Chaos

Well the fans and experts finally got their wish; Total BCS chaos. This is the top ten of the 2007 Pre-season USA Today Coaches Poll followed by the teams current record (week 13) and rank.

1. USC (9-2 #9)
2. LSU (10-2 #7)
3. Florida (9-3 #11)
4. Texas (9-3 #18)
5. Michigan (8-4 not ranked)
6. West Virginia (10-1 #1)
7. Wisconsin (9-3 #16)
8. Oklahoma (10-2 #8)
9. Virginia Tech (10-2 #5)
10 Ohio State (11-1 #3)

Controversy

Nary a single season has passed since the inception of the BCS that did not have some controversy. Now we've got three teams on the cusp of playing in the national title game, and the fans and "experts" don't want any of them in there. They wanted LSU vs USC. Instead we'll get one loss Missouri who's never even won a Big 12 title, one loss West Virginia who plays in a conference that virtually nobody respects, or Ohio State who got their ass handed to them by Florida last season in the title game, who lost to a poorly thought of Illinois team and who's signature win is a sloppy close one over Michigan who lost to 1-AA Appalachian state, Oregon and a battered Wisconsin. And if both Missouri and WV lose, it'll be OSU vs. a two loss team to be determined later. Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin.

Polls are not playoffs

The NCAA's motto is "Where every game counts". BCS defenders say that every game is a playoff game. Yeah right, in a playoff when you lose, you're out. With polls determining who makes it to the bowl games you can lose early and work your way back up to the championship game but if you lose late your out. We have a system that starts out wrong by ranking teams before they ever see an opponent, and continues to be wrong every week about somebody or another until the season is over at which point there are no more games to be wrong about. Under appreciated teams like Missouri and Kansas (who were unranked to start the season) are penalized right off the bat because the lemmings didn't bother to take notice. And teams that lose in their conference championship game are ranked below teams that lost to South West Bejeesus State the first game of the season.

Tradition

The AP poll began in 1936 as a way for the media to generate interest in its football coverage. At the end of the season the writers would vote on who had impressed them the most that season. Polls were never intended to determine who should play whom for anything. They are ill suited for that task. But the polls have become a part of college football tradition. Many bemoan the loss of the traditional bowl "system" (if it can be called that). But the bowls started as essentially inter-conference all star games. The idea was to pit the conference champions from opposing conferences against each other. They were not designed to do anything but create interesting match ups between far flung teams that rarely played each other in the regular season. They were invitation only affairs that were entertaining money making ventures from start to finish. They were not meant to determine on the field of play who the best team in the country was.

National Championship

Out of these archaic traditions, the Bowl Championship committee attempted to cobble together a system that would pit the two best teams in the country and definitively declare an undisputed National Champion. I would call that attempt a failure so far. We still have split national titles, we still have multiple organizations picking the national champion, and we still have deserving teams who because of the luck of the draw are on the outside looking in. The disputes get louder every year, the fans crave a definitive solution and the NCAA, college presidents, bowl committee's, and polling organizations all refuse to give it to them because it would cut into their profit margins.

The Impossible Dream

A system that pits the conference champions and two wild cards against each other in an eight team playoff using the traditional conference bowl tie ins. There are currently three weeks between the end of the regular season and the first bowl, and the two week bowl season was extended another week for the National Championship game. That means there are nearly six weeks between the end of the regular season and the National Championship game. I'd like to see the round of eight games be as Reese Davis suggested, home games, the semi final games be the traditional bowls and the national championship game played on a saturday afternoon or new years day and be rotated between the bowls as it currently is. Polls shouldn't be the major deciding factor in seeding as they are now (2/3 of the equation). The seeding should be decided using as many measurable factors as possible. It should be based on a teams entire season not just on how they are playing right now, because we are determining the National Championship for an entire season, not for the last few weeks of that season. Pre season polls should be dumped entirely. Of course no system will ever be perfect. Long cherished traditions are already falling by the wayside, and any new scenario will make casulties of a few more I'm sure. But Football began as a strictly regional sport in the late 1800's. It has since grown into a national phenomena. The country is much closer together now than it was in the 19th century due to roads, television, and the internet. College football is evolving beyond its insular, regional roots. And it will eventually evolve beyond the BCS.