Double Standards R' Us

Welcome Dawgs, watch out for the Gators, try to sniff out the Trojans hiding in here somewhere. Come on in and join we Buckeyes, in front of the fireplace ablaze with our dreams, hopes, fervant beliefs that we belong at the top of the college football universe. Warm your scarred souls with the heat of flaming derision from every chat room. We can all enjoy some humble pie and listen to tales told over and over of how overrated we all are. No team, perhaps in history, has been as scorned for losing four games in three seasons as Ohio State. Now you join us here in the heartbreak hotel, in the land of the overrated. Don't worry, we'll have more company soon. My question is will your serving of humble pie be as big as the Buckeyes?


A recent history

Buckeyes

2006, 12-1, defeated two #2 ranked teams (Texas and Michigan) lost to #2 Florida 41-14 in NC game.
-Consensus of opinion: Mediocre team in a bad confernce got outclassed by speedy SEC opponent.

2007, 11-2, lost to resurgent Illinois with an officiating crew that was fired after the season in no small part because of the miserable job they did in this and other games. Picked to finish 3rd in the Big Ten, they won it outright and watched seven teams in front of them lose in the final few weeks of the season. The blood bath that was the 2007 season allowed them to slip into the NC game vs. a powerful and experienced LSU. The score did not reflect the suicidal personal foul's which allowed LSU to extend their slight lead into a blowout by the third quarter, or the fact that OSU out-gained LSU by more than 2 yards per play and ended up losing by 14 with a team that had to replace 75% of its offensive production from the year before.
-Consensus of opinion: Confirmation that the SEC is far superior to the best the Big Ten has to offer past, present and future.

2008, #3rd ranked and Beanie-less Buckeye's lose big to #1 USC who took every opportunity to humiliate the most hated team in the history of college football.
-Consensus of opinion: Need we say more? The buckeye's are totally exposed, jokes of a team, in the worst conference in college football.

USC

2006, lost to unranked Oregon State early and UCLA in the final game of the regular season while ranked #3.
-Consensus of opinion: What? who? Don't look at us! Look at all the other upsets, at least we weren't humiliated in the national championship game.

2007, lost to Stanford (4-8) in the biggest upset of the season (not withstanding the Michigan loss to eventual 1-AA National Champion Appalachin State), and then to a Dennis Dixon led Oregon.
-Consensus of opinion: Stanford?!! Freaking Stanford?!! Oh wait look over there, it's Ohio State losing another National Championship game!

2008, the greatest team in the history of college football, who could beat half of the NFL, schools the most overrated team in the history of college football 35-3, then loses to unranked Oregon state, after a bye week, again.
-Consensus of opinion: Look there's Will Ferrell and Denzel Washington! Did we mention we beat Ohio State?

Florida

2006, lost to #10 Auburn away, whipped Heisman winner Troy Smith led Ohio State who were being touted as one of the greatest teams ever 41-14 with a frenzied spread-option attack led by next years Heisman winner Tim Tebow.
-Consensus of opinion: SEC speed + slow Big Ten = blowout.

2007, rebuilding team loses to #3 Auburn, #2 LSU, #19 Georgia, and Michigan in the citrus bowl.
-Consensus of opinion- Well gee I mean they lost most of their team from last year so what do you expect?

2008, #4 ranked Gators lose a shocker to unranked Ole Miss at home!
-consensus of opinion: Well golly, the SEC is soooo tough, how do you expect us to beat our own conference bottom feeders?

Georgia

2006, #9 Georgia blown out 51-33 by #14 Tennessee then lost to unranked Vanderbilt, #8 Florida and unranked Kentucky.
-Consensus of opinion. Disappointing season under King of coaches in waiting Mark Richt, who sniff, sniff, must slog through the SEC every year.

2007, pre-season #13 lost to #12 South Carolina and unranked Tennessee (again).
-Consensus of opinion: They finished strong against four ranked teams and set the stage for a national title run the following season.

2008, pre-season #1 gets manhandled by St. Nick Saban led Alabama 41-30 (not as close as the final score).
-Consensus of opinion: Wow look at how great Alabama is, I mean it's Nick Saban, national title winning St. Nick. Woe is us, we're forced to play SEC teams, boo hoo.

My opinion? The humiliation vs. Florida has irrationally soured the nation's opinion of Ohio State and the Big Ten. When other top teams lose games they shouldn't, to far worse teams than the three of the four OSU lost to, they get excused. When Ohio State loses to the #2 ranked team and two #1 ranked teams in three different seasons and two National title games they get excoriated from sea to shining sea.

Sigh, another year of SEC vs Big 10 debates

I suppose we have the internet to blame, every knuckle dragger with a pulse and some bandwidth can chime in with his or her enlightened opinion on any topic imaginable. Emotionally charged topics always bring out the crazies. I have a theory why this is particularly bad when it comes to college football; it's regional and semi-tribal, therefore it's tied to our self identification on some deep pre-rational level. That's why facts rarely get in the way of a good argument. The general tone on most forums is "you're either one of us or you're a trogldyte who wouldn't know good football if your were pancaked by it."

With the recent success of the SEC in the National Championship game and the Big 10's struggles the debate is at a fever pitch. Of course the supposed dominance of the SEC is more perception than fact, but would you expect anything different from a sport that picks the top two teams that play for the National Championship by a popularity contest?

Here are some facts I gleaned from the College Football Data Warehouse, the best college football data base I've come across.

Big Ten vs SEC 95-89-7 (51%)-Advantage: Big 10

D-1 All time wins of Big 10 and SEC teams:

Rank-Team-win pct.

1. Michigan 74%
5. Ohio State 71%
6. Penn St. 68%
7. Alabama 70%
9. Tennessee 69%
11. Georgia 64%
12. LSU 64%
13. Auburn 63%
23. Arkansas 59%
26. Florida 62%
27. Minnesota .57%
32. Mich St. 58%
34. Miss. 56%
35. Wisc. 565%
40. Purdue 54%
41. Iowa 52%
42 Illinois 52%
44. Kentucky 50%
48 Vanderbilt 50%
60. S. Car 49%
72. Miss St. 48%
86. Northwestern 43%
95. Indiana 42%

Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State top the list, six SEC teams follow, six of the next 7 are in the Big Ten, and the bottom 2 of the last 7 are in the Big Ten.

81% of the Big Ten is above .500 in all time wins and in the top 50 all time winning programs.
83% of the SEC is above .500 and in the top 50 all time.

2 Big Ten and 2 SEC teams are below .500

Advantage: Even

NFL Draft picks since 2003

Big Ten-210 (19/team avg.) SEC-225 (18.75/team avg.) advantage: Even

Head to Head matchups

Mich vs SEC 20-5
Ind vs SEC 26-21
Minn vs SEC 5-3
Iowa vs SEC 4-3
PSU vs SEC 16-16
Mich St. vs SEC 5-6
Pur vs SEC 4-5
OSU vs SEC 7-11
Wisc vs SEC 4-8
NW vs SEC 2-5
Ill vs SEC 2-6

Big 10 vs:

Alabama 9-13-0
Arkansas 5-1-0
Auburn 3-6-2
Florida 5-9-0
Georgia 2-7-0
Kentucky 31-24-1
LSU 4-7-1
Miss 3-0-0
Miss St. 6-2-1
S. Car 5-3-0
Tenn 5-10-0
Vanderbilt 17-7-2

SEC vs:

Illinois 6-2-0
Indiana 21-26-1
Iowa 3-4-0
Michigan 5-20-1
Mich St. 6-5-1
Minnesota 3-5-0
Northwestern 5-2-1
Ohio State 11-7-2
Penn St. 16-16-0
Purdue 5-4-0
Wisconsin 8-4-1

advantage: SEC

When you look at the head to head matchups, the SEC's top teams are consistently better against the big 10 than the top Big 10 teams are against the SEC thanks mostly to Ohio State's 7-11 record overall and abysmal 0-9 record in bowl games, but the bottom feeders in the Big 10 do better against the SEC than the SEC's bottom feeders do against the Big 10. I also looked at a lot of North vs. South and west vs. south records and there is no clear superiority there either. For instance Notre Dame is 21-13 vs the SEC, Pittsburgh is 8-1-2, Missouri is 19-8-1, West Va is 21-17-2, North Carolina is 84-74-8, Oklahoma is 19-9-1, and USC is 21-17-2. I'm sure equally lopsided records supporting the SEC superiority argument could be found but my point is not that the SEC sucks, it is that the SEC's current success does not erase the evenness of the SEC vs Big 10 rivalry overall. The case can be made for SEC superiority only by ignoring important stats that do not support that argument. But as I said why let that get in the way of a good argument.

The Terrelle Pryor Phenomenon

We got em! The number one rated high school football player in the country. But of course a bunch of happy people means a bunch of mad people. Michigan and Penn State fans slagging the kid for jilting their school, buckeye's who think he's a prima-donna. God almighty people leave the kid alone! He's an 18 year old who happens to be a gifted athlete, he's not the Dalai Lama or Mother Teresa. Why do we declare him a failure if he doesn't fulfill OUR expectations? Why do the trogldytes lurking around the ESPN forums feel they are the best arbiters of this kids character and possibilities?

Is he guaranteed to be OSU's next Chic Harley, Archie Griffen or Troy Smith? Of course not. But landing five star recruits in bunches sure does increase your chances of getting the next all everything super hero who will forever be associated with your school. And Jim Tressel is a master at landing these outstanding athletes in bunches. Maybe our next superstar won't be the five star, #1 overall high school recruit, phenomenon that Pryor is, maybe like A.J. Hawk and Troy Smith he'll be a three star after thought. But I'm putting my money on Pryor to be a monster in college. And with the rock solid foundation the Buckeye's already have and the class coming in with him he has the potential to be our second Heisman trophy winner in a decade. I am excited about the possibility without the expectation that it WILL happen.

Joel Penton: Righteous Dude

Joel Penton spoke at my son's upward basketball banquet tonight. And I must say, I liked the guy a lot. He had a positive message that could be taken to heart by anyone of any faith, philosophy, or belief system. Not to mention he had a great highlight reel topped off by his sack of Chad Henne in 2006. My son had his upward basketball autographed, and I got a pretty good look at his 2002 National Championship ring. Cooool. He's also, ironically, the 2006 Danny Wuerffel trophy winner. Which I had forgotten (blocked from my mind) after OSU got its ass handed to them by Wuerffel's Gator's in 2006. A second national championship ring would have looked even better but twas not to be.

Shame, Shame, Shame

Shame on you Ohio State, how dare you go 23-3 over the past two seasons, win the Heisman, Butkus, and a O-lineman's back pocket full of other awards, then embarass yourself in two straight national title games. How dare you finish the regular season as one of the top two ranked teams in the country three out of the last six years. How dare you beat two number two teams in one season one of which was your archrival. How dare you beat that rival four straight years. You know the SEC is the best conference in the history of the world and you should have had the decency to bow out the national title game so that Georgia could have played LSU this year for a true National Championship. Or at least the pollsters could have let USC get pummeled by LSU. Anything but Ohio State again. Now I see your media moles have you ranked in the top five for the 2008 season, with virtually the same team that the SEC dominated for a second straight year. Everyone knows we should just pick the top five SEC teams first then maybe let USC, Ohio State, Michigan or some other second rate team slip in under them. I mean just look how dominant the SEC is.


Final Stats

More coverage less content

One reason I started this blog is that despite the proliferation of 24 hour cable and internet sports coverage, It's still very hard to find good analysis. Most of the conventional wisdom that passes for analysis just seems to be unexamined misconceptions, like the afore-blogged weakness of the big 10 and the SEC speed myth. This CW just gets repeated ad nauseam until it becomes the truth. That's frustrating enough on its own but what's worse is that these misperceptions play an important role in selecting who plays for the national title, because the human polls comprise two-thirds of the BCS equation. These misperceptions also are important to bowl selections in general since bowls generally want the highest ranked teams possible. Before the bowls began, a team's success was measured by their results on the field. Now its more about impressing sportswriters and coaches.

I'm sure the former coaches, players and life long sports fans who cover sports on TV and the internet spend a lot of time looking at film, stats and talking to players and coaches. Unfortunately they have to condense all of this information and insight into, what 30 seconds? The format of sports center and all of its clones is quick cut, fast paced, skim the surface of as many stories as possible. Always for the biggest emotional impact. Rarely do you get in depth analysis of players, schemes or stats from people who understand the game inside and out. So anal retentive types like myself are forced to research and analyze for ourselves just to get an inkling of what is really going on with our favorite teams. Unfortunately there are simply not enough hours in the day, especially since I have to work for a living and have many interests that have nothing to do with sports.

The Big Ten's weakness

Just how weak is the Big Ten?

TEAM-Pts/G--TotYds--Yds/G-3rdD%-4th%-Pen-PenYds-TD-Plays
NU ---25.8---- 5132----427.7----.458----.389----59----563----37----927
MSU ---34.1---- 5115----426.3----.416----.625----64----614----48----898
ILL ---28.8---- 5080----423.3----.443----.857----58----570----41----845
PUR ---32.9---- 5080---423.3---.401----.588----71----584----46----926
WISC ---30.5---- 4967---413.9----.449----.600----71----561----44----868
MINN ---26.3---- 4890---407.5----.426----.435----67----502----40----887
PSU ---30.8---- 4788---399.0----.466----.667----56----431----43----871
OSU ---32.0---- 4765---397.1----.476----.636----65----491----44----827
IU ---31.6---- 4720---393.3----.421----.600----65----629----42----844
MICH---26.1---- 4482---373.5----.416----.357----58-----515----40----877
IOWA---18.5---- 3796---316.3----.316----.500----67----667----28----814

We have four teams with more than 5000 yds total offense, Six that average more than 400 yds/game and 30+pts. They're 33-8 in their non-conference games. In the BCS we have #1 Ohio State at 11-1, #13 Illinois and #18 Wisconsin at 9-3, Michigan and Penn State are 8-4, Indiana, Michigan State and Purdue are 7-5, Iowa and N. Western are 6-6 and Minnesota is 1-11. The difference this year seems to be that the traditional pecking order is a little upside down. With the rise of Illinois and Indiana and the fall of Michigan vs non conference teams and Iowa and Minnesota from perennial bowl teams. The perception throughout the country is that the Big Ten is terrible this year but the numbers just don't bear that out. Down a little sure, but not awful. It's just not the season anybody expected much like the rest of the college football season.